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Edmonton and Area 2014 Housing Forecast – Jan 08, 2014

Edmonton and Area 2014 Housing Forecast

Ben Officer from the team was in attendance at Northlands Expo Center today for the annual REALTORS® Association of Edmonton’s (RAE) Forecast for 2014. (A link to the complete presentation is available at the bottom of this article)

The Mayors from Strathcona, Leduc, Parkland, and Sturgeon Counties were there to speak, as well as a representative from Canadian Mortgage and Housing (CMHC), and John Rose, Chief Economist for the City of Edmonton. The last speaker was the President of RAE – Greg Steele.

The outlook for Edmonton and area is quite good for 2014. We have some of the same issues as previous years because of our petro-chemical dependent economy. PIPELINES!

Some Forecast Points (by example slide – see below):

1. Like it or not, bitumen from the oil-sands needs to get out of Alberta (see “Western Canada Select” on the slide in regards to oil prices). You can see the reduction of the price of our oil because we can not get it out of Alberta. Natural gas prices are staying stable for now.

2. People continue to move to Alberta and Edmonton and we continue to see strong job growth for 2014.

3. MLS sales have been trending up for the past few years and this will probably continue in 2014, unless there is a dramatic reduction in MLS listings.

4. The average MLS price is creeping up in to 2007 levels for SOME areas. I have not seen this happening everywhere and we will have to see if it continues across the complete market area.

5. Rental vacancy rates have continued to decline and I do not see this changing. People keep moving to Edmonton and area, and need somewhere to live.

6. Reduced vacancy rates mean increased rent. Market driven and no reduction is forecasted.

7. Final example slide is the “Edmonton CMA Forecast Summary” for 2014

– Continued Job Growth

– Increased housing sales

– 3 % Increase in the average price for a house. 2 % increase for condos.

 

I would hope that 2014 will generally be a Balanced market, but it could definitely tip to being a Seller’s market if the number of MLS listings is reduced and/or there is increased buyer pressure to get into a home. We are seeing some of that now, but will it stay that way? Time will tell.

Ben

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Here are the example slides:  2014 RAE Housing Forecast Example Slides

Here is a link to the complete slide package that we received for the 2014 forecast:  2014 RAE Housing Forecast Seminar

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